Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Roxanne Modafferi vs Casey O'Neill
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roxanne Modafferi
Casey O'Neill
17%
83%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
39
Age
Δ 15y
24
25-22
Career record
Δ 33 pp
12-2
L2
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Modafferi: 120 sig / 2 TD ·
O'Neill: 229 sig / 0 TD
Roxanne Modafferi
Casey O'Neill
58
Sig strikes landed
98
185
Sig strikes attempted
198
93
Total strikes landed
134
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
220s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Roxanne Modafferi
"The Happy Warrior"
25-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
11 fights · 4-7
Last 5
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
Blue corner
W3
Casey O'Neill
"King"
12-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—