Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
King Green
Nasrat Haqparast
60%
40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
36-17-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Green: 188 sig / 0 TD ·
Haqparast: 76 sig / 0 TD
King Green
Nasrat Haqparast
73
Sig strikes landed
63
143
Sig strikes attempted
160
78
Total strikes landed
78
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
92s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
King Green
36-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nasrat Haqparast
18-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—