Back to UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
Main Lightweight

Alexander Hernandez vs Renato Moicano

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 ·Toyota Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Renato Moicano
52% 48%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
29
Age
Δ 3y
33
19-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-7-1
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Hernandez: 37 sig / 0 TD · Moicano: 33 sig / 2 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Renato Moicano
41
Sig strikes landed
50
95
Sig strikes attempted
100
52
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alexander Hernandez

"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1

Renato Moicano

22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—