Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Tai Tuivasa
71%
29%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
30-13
Career record
Δ 8 pp
16-10
W1
Current streak
W4
23
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lewis: 27 sig / 2 TD ·
Tuivasa: 24 sig / 0 TD
Derrick Lewis
Tai Tuivasa
32
Sig strikes landed
30
55
Sig strikes attempted
60
40
Total strikes landed
39
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
56s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
72%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
23 fights · 17-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
Blue corner
W4
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
16-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—