Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jared Cannonier
Derek Brunson
49%
51%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
77"
38
Age
Δ 0y
38
19-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-9
W1
Current streak
W5
12
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cannonier: 55 sig / 1 TD ·
Brunson: 43 sig / 3 TD
Jared Cannonier
Derek Brunson
41
Sig strikes landed
45
83
Sig strikes attempted
84
49
Total strikes landed
60
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.8
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
26s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jared Cannonier
"The Killa Gorilla"
19-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
38
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
Blue corner
W5
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
19 fights · 14-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—