Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
AJ Dobson
Jacob Malkoun
43%
57%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dobson: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Malkoun: 80 sig / 6 TD
AJ Dobson
Jacob Malkoun
28
Sig strikes landed
25
53
Sig strikes attempted
47
48
Total strikes landed
58
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.8
0.8
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
107s
Control time
270s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
AJ Dobson
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
W1
Jacob Malkoun
"Mamba"
11-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—