Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Bill Algeo
Joanderson Brito
38%
62%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Algeo: 59 sig / 2 TD ·
Brito: 40 sig / 2 TD
Bill Algeo
Joanderson Brito
48
Sig strikes landed
47
92
Sig strikes attempted
96
69
Total strikes landed
69
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
106s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bill Algeo
"Senor Perfecto"
18-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
Blue corner
Joanderson Brito
"Tubarao"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27