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Prelims1 Middleweight

Jamie Pickett vs Joseph Holmes

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Jamie Pickett
Joseph Holmes
42% 58%
Why
80"
Reach
80"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
W1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pickett: 50 sig / 2 TD · Holmes: 51 sig / 0 TD
Jamie Pickett
Joseph Holmes
31
Sig strikes landed
36
60
Sig strikes attempted
77
40
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jamie Pickett

"The Night Wolf"
14-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
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L UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
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L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
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Blue corner

Joseph Holmes

"Uglyman Joe"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27