Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jake Collier
Chase Sherman
53%
47%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
13-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-13
L1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Collier: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Sherman: 10 sig / 0 TD
Jake Collier
Chase Sherman
67
Sig strikes landed
68
147
Sig strikes attempted
145
76
Total strikes landed
78
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
Blue corner
L2
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16-13
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 3-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—