Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Brandon Royval
Rogerio Bontorin
54%
46%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
29
Age
Δ 0y
30
17-10
Career record
Δ 17 pp
16-4
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Royval: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Bontorin: 28 sig / 8 TD
Brandon Royval
Rogerio Bontorin
24
Sig strikes landed
24
57
Sig strikes attempted
41
38
Total strikes landed
37
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.1
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
79s
Control time
197s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
Blue corner
L2
Rogerio Bontorin
16-4
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—