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Main Women's Flyweight

Katlyn Cerminara vs Jennifer Maia

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Katlyn Cerminara
Jennifer Maia
59% 41%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
19-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-10-1
W2
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerminara: 72 sig / 1 TD · Maia: 52 sig / 0 TD
Katlyn Cerminara
Jennifer Maia
78
Sig strikes landed
68
187
Sig strikes attempted
156
101
Total strikes landed
88
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
84s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
86%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Katlyn Cerminara

"Blonde Fighter"
19-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
W UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
L UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
W UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
L UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
Blue corner
W1

Jennifer Maia

22-10-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
L UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
L UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …