Prelims1
Welterweight
Jack Della Maddalena vs Pete Rodriguez
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jack Della Maddalena
Pete Rodriguez
82%
18%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
25
Age
Δ 0y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Della Maddalena: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Rodriguez: 25 sig / 0 TD
Jack Della Maddalena
Pete Rodriguez
43
Sig strikes landed
31
84
Sig strikes attempted
71
64
Total strikes landed
41
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
217s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jack Della Maddalena
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
Blue corner
Pete Rodriguez
"Dead Game"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
25