Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tony Gravely
Saimon Oliveira
63%
37%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
30
Age
Δ 0y
31
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gravely: 46 sig / 11 TD ·
Oliveira: 35 sig / 0 TD
Tony Gravely
Saimon Oliveira
40
Sig strikes landed
33
83
Sig strikes attempted
73
62
Total strikes landed
49
3.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
201s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tony Gravely
23-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
Saimon Oliveira
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31