Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matt Frevola
Genaro Valdez
49%
51%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
L2
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Frevola: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Valdez: 10 sig / 0 TD
Matt Frevola
Genaro Valdez
28
Sig strikes landed
32
58
Sig strikes attempted
62
44
Total strikes landed
55
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
158s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
11-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
D
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
Blue corner
Genaro Valdez
"Rayadito"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30