Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Cody Stamann
Said Nurmagomedov
51%
49%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
21-9-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-5
L2
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Stamann: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Nurmagomedov: 7 sig / 0 TD
Cody Stamann
Said Nurmagomedov
49
Sig strikes landed
54
103
Sig strikes attempted
118
69
Total strikes landed
67
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
119s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Cody Stamann
"The Spartan"
21-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
Blue corner
W1
Said Nurmagomedov
19-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—