Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Morales
Trevin Giles
87%
13%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Morales: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Giles: 8 sig / 1 TD
Michael Morales
Trevin Giles
42
Sig strikes landed
35
79
Sig strikes attempted
74
82
Total strikes landed
46
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
199s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Michael Morales
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
L1
Trevin Giles
16-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—