Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Qiu Lun
Erisson Ferreira
57%
43%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lun: 50 sig / 2 TD ·
Ferreira: 33 sig / 1 TD
Qiu Lun
Erisson Ferreira
39
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
74
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Qiu Lun
"Tibetan Knight"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
Blue corner
Erisson Ferreira
"Gato"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31