Prelims1
Lightweight
Claudio Puelles vs Chris Gruetzemacher
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Claudio Puelles
Chris Gruetzemacher
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
26
Age
Δ 10y
36
14-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-5
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Puelles: 43 sig / 1 TD ·
Gruetzemacher: 38 sig / 1 TD
Claudio Puelles
Chris Gruetzemacher
39
Sig strikes landed
29
87
Sig strikes attempted
46
55
Total strikes landed
52
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
260s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Claudio Puelles
"Prince of Peru"
14-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Gruetzemacher
"Gritz"
16-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—