Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Vince Morales
69%
31%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
18-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-11
W1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smolka: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Morales: 27 sig / 0 TD
Louis Smolka
Vince Morales
65
Sig strikes landed
56
144
Sig strikes attempted
126
72
Total strikes landed
67
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
172s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
Blue corner
W1
Vince Morales
"Vandetta"
17-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—