Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Leonardo Santos
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
40
Age
Δ 2y
42
38-23
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-8-1
L1
Current streak
L1
21
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Guida: 18 sig / 2 TD ·
Santos: 41 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Leonardo Santos
29
Sig strikes landed
42
74
Sig strikes attempted
86
47
Total strikes landed
54
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
182s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
21 fights · 11-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
Blue corner
L1
Leonardo Santos
18-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
9 fights · 7-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—