Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jimmy Crute
Jamahal Hill
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
26
Age
Δ 5y
30
14-5-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Crute: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Hill: 4 sig / 0 TD
Jimmy Crute
Jamahal Hill
29
Sig strikes landed
28
70
Sig strikes attempted
52
38
Total strikes landed
39
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jimmy Crute
14-5-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
Jamahal Hill
"Sweet Dreams"
12-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—