Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brendan Allen
Chris Curtis
69%
31%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
27-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
33-13
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Allen: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Curtis: 61 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Allen
Chris Curtis
27
Sig strikes landed
22
57
Sig strikes attempted
49
45
Total strikes landed
27
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brendan Allen
"All In"
27-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
33-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—