Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manel Kape
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
86%
14%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
23-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-9
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kape: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Zhumagulov: 31 sig / 0 TD
Manel Kape
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
50
Sig strikes landed
44
115
Sig strikes attempted
97
65
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
94s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
23-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
W1
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
15-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—