Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brad Riddell
Rafael Fiziev
52%
48%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
11-4
Career record
Δ 0 pp
14-5
W4
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Riddell: 59 sig / 1 TD ·
Fiziev: 66 sig / 0 TD
Brad Riddell
Rafael Fiziev
55
Sig strikes landed
55
112
Sig strikes attempted
126
60
Total strikes landed
65
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
60s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Brad Riddell
"Quake"
11-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
W4
Rafael Fiziev
"Ataman"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—