Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rob Font
Jose Aldo
39%
61%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
23-10
Career record
Δ 7 pp
33-10
W4
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Font: 149 sig / 1 TD ·
Aldo: 86 sig / 0 TD
Rob Font
Jose Aldo
80
Sig strikes landed
69
183
Sig strikes attempted
152
94
Total strikes landed
82
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Rob Font
23-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
Blue corner
W2
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
18 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—