Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Don'Tale Mayes
Josh Parisian
44%
56%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
30
Age
Δ 3y
32
12-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
16-8
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Mayes: 25 sig / 6 TD ·
Parisian: 10 sig / 0 TD
Don'Tale Mayes
Josh Parisian
62
Sig strikes landed
59
134
Sig strikes attempted
114
83
Total strikes landed
84
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
12-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
Blue corner
W1
Josh Parisian
16-8
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—