Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jordan Leavitt
Matt Sayles
70%
30%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
26
Age
Δ 1y
28
13-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Leavitt: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Sayles: 13 sig / 1 TD
Jordan Leavitt
Matt Sayles
38
Sig strikes landed
18
76
Sig strikes attempted
50
51
Total strikes landed
30
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
167s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jordan Leavitt
"The Monkey King"
13-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Matt Sayles
8-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—