Prelims1
Women's Featherweight
Raquel Pennington vs Macy Chiasson
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Raquel Pennington
Macy Chiasson
49%
51%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
17-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-6
W2
Current streak
W2
14
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pennington: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Chiasson: 26 sig / 1 TD
Raquel Pennington
Macy Chiasson
59
Sig strikes landed
52
104
Sig strikes attempted
123
83
Total strikes landed
80
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
173s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
17-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
Blue corner
W2
Macy Chiasson
12-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—