Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Diego Ferreira
Mateusz Gamrot
27%
73%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
19-8
Career record
Δ 17 pp
27-4
L2
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ferreira: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Gamrot: 25 sig / 4 TD
Diego Ferreira
Mateusz Gamrot
40
Sig strikes landed
46
100
Sig strikes attempted
95
50
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
102s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Diego Ferreira
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
27-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—