Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Darren Elkins
56%
44%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
38
Age
Δ 0y
38
31-15
Career record
Δ 4 pp
30-12
L1
Current streak
W2
20
UFC fights in our DB
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Swanson: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Elkins: 2 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
Darren Elkins
57
Sig strikes landed
56
113
Sig strikes attempted
125
75
Total strikes landed
77
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.1
Takedowns attempted
9.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
45s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
20 fights · 12-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
Blue corner
W2
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
24 fights · 16-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—