Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Ricky Simon
44%
56%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
39
Age
Δ 10y
29
28-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
23-7-1
L3
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Assuncao: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Simon: 18 sig / 2 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Ricky Simon
43
Sig strikes landed
52
96
Sig strikes attempted
111
54
Total strikes landed
66
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
57s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Raphael Assuncao
28-11
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
W3
Ricky Simon
23-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—