Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stephen Thompson
Belal Muhammad
25%
75%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
39
Age
Δ 6y
33
17-10-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
25-5
L1
Current streak
W5
17
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thompson: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Muhammad: 58 sig / 7 TD
Stephen Thompson
Belal Muhammad
66
Sig strikes landed
81
152
Sig strikes attempted
174
75
Total strikes landed
107
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
28s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
83%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
17 fights · 11-5
Last 5
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
Blue corner
W5
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—