Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Chris Daukaus
73%
27%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
29-14
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-7
L1
Current streak
W4
22
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lewis: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Daukaus: 10 sig / 0 TD
Derrick Lewis
Chris Daukaus
30
Sig strikes landed
29
60
Sig strikes attempted
52
37
Total strikes landed
32
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
78%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
22 fights · 16-6
Last 5
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
Blue corner
W4
Chris Daukaus
13-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—