Prelims1
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Gerald Meerschaert
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Stoltzfus
Gerald Meerschaert
43%
57%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
16-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
38-22
L2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Stoltzfus: 12 sig / 4 TD ·
Meerschaert: 11 sig / 1 TD
Dustin Stoltzfus
Gerald Meerschaert
37
Sig strikes landed
41
93
Sig strikes attempted
94
51
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
54%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Dustin Stoltzfus
16-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
Blue corner
W2
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
38-22
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—