Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Tafa
Harry Hunsucker
71%
29%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
7-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
7-7
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tafa: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Hunsucker: 5 sig / 0 TD
Justin Tafa
Harry Hunsucker
33
Sig strikes landed
35
62
Sig strikes attempted
65
44
Total strikes landed
48
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
95s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Justin Tafa
"Bad Man"
7-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L1
Harry Hunsucker
"The Hurricane"
7-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—