Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Sean Brady
38%
62%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
20-8
Career record
Δ 19 pp
20-2
L1
Current streak
W4
16
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Chiesa: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Brady: 18 sig / 5 TD
Michael Chiesa
Sean Brady
24
Sig strikes landed
36
71
Sig strikes attempted
71
44
Total strikes landed
65
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
Blue corner
W4
Sean Brady
20-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—