Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Miguel Baeza
Khaos Williams
46%
54%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
29
Age
Δ 2y
28
10-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
17-5
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Baeza: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Williams: 49 sig / 0 TD
Miguel Baeza
Khaos Williams
49
Sig strikes landed
55
114
Sig strikes attempted
135
48
Total strikes landed
63
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
-10s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Miguel Baeza
"Caramel Thunder"
10-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
Blue corner
W1
Khaos Williams
"The OxFighter"
17-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—