Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Song Yadong
Julio Arce
71%
29%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
24
Age
Δ 8y
32
24-9-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
20-6
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Yadong: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Arce: 13 sig / 0 TD
Song Yadong
Julio Arce
69
Sig strikes landed
57
160
Sig strikes attempted
140
84
Total strikes landed
74
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
76s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Song Yadong
"Kung Fu Kid"
24-9-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
8 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
Blue corner
W1
Julio Arce
20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—