Prelims1
Lightweight
Thiago Moises vs Joel Alvarez
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Moises
Joel Alvarez
32%
68%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
77"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
19-11
Career record
Δ 22 pp
24-4
L1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Moises: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvarez: 44 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Moises
Joel Alvarez
23
Sig strikes landed
34
58
Sig strikes attempted
83
33
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
112s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Moises
19-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
Blue corner
W3
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
24-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—