Main
Heavyweight
Ben Rothwell vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ben Rothwell
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
81%
19%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
40
Age
Δ 4y
36
40-14
Career record
Δ 6 pp
23-10-1
W1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rothwell: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Rogerio de Lima: 14 sig / 0 TD
Ben Rothwell
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
30
Sig strikes landed
37
64
Sig strikes attempted
62
45
Total strikes landed
52
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
77s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ben Rothwell
40-14
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—