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Max Holloway vs Yair Rodriguez

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Yair Rodriguez
65% 35%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
28-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-6
W1
Current streak
W2
24
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holloway: 230 sig / 3 TD · Rodriguez: 159 sig / 1 TD
Max Holloway
Yair Rodriguez
181
Sig strikes landed
116
316
Sig strikes attempted
255
187
Total strikes landed
120
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
84s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Max Holloway

"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 24 fights · 18-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
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L UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
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L UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
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L UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
Blue corner
W2

Yair Rodriguez

"El Pantera"
22-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 10 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
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W UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
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L UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
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W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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