Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Piera Rodriguez
Valesca Machado
64%
36%
Why
64"
Reach
64"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rodriguez: 43 sig / 3 TD ·
Machado: 36 sig / 0 TD
Piera Rodriguez
Valesca Machado
38
Sig strikes landed
36
81
Sig strikes attempted
81
69
Total strikes landed
60
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
190s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Piera Rodriguez
"La Fiera"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Valesca Machado
"Tina Black"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26