Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Caio Borralho
Jesse Murray
81%
19%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Borralho: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Murray: 4 sig / 0 TD
Caio Borralho
Jesse Murray
46
Sig strikes landed
32
90
Sig strikes attempted
82
70
Total strikes landed
43
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
142s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
19-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 5.5
—
Blue corner
Jesse Murray
"Hollywood"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29