Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kaloyan Kolev
Armen Petrosyan
73%
27%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kolev: 5 sig / 3 TD ·
Petrosyan: 20 sig / 0 TD
Kaloyan Kolev
Armen Petrosyan
38
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
71
55
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kaloyan Kolev
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Armen Petrosyan
"Superman"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31