Back to DWCS 5.8
Main Bantamweight

Pedro Falcao vs James Barnes

DWCS 5.8 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Pedro Falcao
James Barnes
75% 25%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
29
Age
Δ 10y
39

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Falcao: 42 sig / 3 TD · Barnes: 8 sig / 1 TD
Pedro Falcao
James Barnes
41
Sig strikes landed
36
81
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Pedro Falcao

"Pedrinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

James Barnes

"Mooka"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39