Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Augusto Sakai
Tai Tuivasa
69%
31%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
16-6-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
16-10
L2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sakai: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Tuivasa: 34 sig / 0 TD
Augusto Sakai
Tai Tuivasa
45
Sig strikes landed
35
93
Sig strikes attempted
85
60
Total strikes landed
47
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
87s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
69%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Augusto Sakai
16-6-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
Blue corner
W3
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
16-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—