Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pedro Munhoz
Dominick Cruz
33%
67%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
35
Age
Δ 2y
37
20-11
Career record
Δ 22 pp
25-4
L1
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Munhoz: 74 sig / 0 TD ·
Cruz: 103 sig / 1 TD
Pedro Munhoz
Dominick Cruz
71
Sig strikes landed
77
172
Sig strikes attempted
176
84
Total strikes landed
96
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
35s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
20-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
Blue corner
W1
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—