Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Randy Costa
Tony Kelley
66%
34%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
27
Age
Δ 8y
35
6-5
Career record
Δ 20 pp
9-3
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Costa: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Kelley: 82 sig / 0 TD
Randy Costa
Tony Kelley
54
Sig strikes landed
49
119
Sig strikes attempted
100
63
Total strikes landed
72
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
91s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Randy Costa
"The Zohan"
6-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Tony Kelley
"Primetime"
9-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—