Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Hall
Darrick Minner
32%
68%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
9-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
26-15
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hall: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Minner: 26 sig / 1 TD
Ryan Hall
Darrick Minner
14
Sig strikes landed
20
31
Sig strikes attempted
32
39
Total strikes landed
38
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
107s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ryan Hall
"The Wizard"
9-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
L1
Darrick Minner
26-15
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—