Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Geoff Neal
Santiago Ponzinibbio
34%
66%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
16-9
Career record
Δ 14 pp
32-9
L2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Neal: 85 sig / 0 TD ·
Ponzinibbio: 91 sig / 1 TD
Geoff Neal
Santiago Ponzinibbio
53
Sig strikes landed
66
124
Sig strikes attempted
141
63
Total strikes landed
74
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
60s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
16-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
W1
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
32-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—